Monsoon forecasts accurate for 12 years: Govt

NEW DELHI: India's weather office had forecast monsoon accurately for 12 years between 1988 and 2012, earth sciences minister S Jaipal Reddy said today.
"During the last 25 years, long range seasonal monsoon rainfall forecasts of the government for the country as a whole were found to be accurate in 12 years or 48%," he told the Lok Sabha in a written reply.
Reddy said the IMD had issued partially correct forecasts, within an error bar of eight per cent, for five years or 20% cases in the 25 year period under evaluation.
"Therefore, monsoon forecasts have been either accurate or partially correct in 17 years or 68% of cases," he said.
Last year, the government had admitted that IMD's statistical model has limitations and the monsoon forecasts have often gone wrong.
On short-range forecasts issued three days in advance, Reddy said the accuracy was in the range of 70 to 95%.
The skill of district level rainfall is 75-85% in monsoon season and more than 85 per cent in non-monsoon seasons, he said.
"By duly considering the difficulties involved in monsoon prediction, the above success rate may be considered as very encouraging," Reddy said.